THE Heineken Cup's final stage of the six-match pool competition ends this weekend with more than a few questions still to be answered and the potential for more than one team to make a mockery of even the most considered prediction. Peter Jackson (above) puts his neck on the line....
What we know:
Four teams are through to the knock-out last eight - Northampton, Toulouse, Leinster, Toulon. Seven are still in contention for the last four places with prospects which vary from strong to faintly ludicrous - Perpignan, Leicester, Biarritz, Ulster, Clermont, Scarlets, Wasps.
What we don't know:
The winners of the two pools still to be decided - Biarritz or Ulster in Pool 4, Perpignan or Leicester in Pool 5. And the identity of the two highest-placed runners-up to complete the last eight. All four will go through in the not unlikely event of try-bonus victories all round, Biarritz at home to Bath, Ulster in Italy against the Aironi lightweights, Perpignan at home to the scrum-challenged Scarlets, Leicester against the other Italian lightweights, Treviso, at Welford Road.
So what happens if they all finish level on 22 points?
First place will be determined by the aggregate score of the pool matches between the top two. Biarritz would top Pool 4 by virtue of a superior head-to-head against Ulster and Perpignan Pool 5 on the strength of beating Leicester at home and drawing with them in the East Midlands.
What if…..?
The Scarlets give Perpignan a bloody nose? Wasps will be praying they do because if the former winners spring a less sensational result and put one over on Toulouse, then the ex-English champions could elbow their way into the last berth as one of the top two runners-up. Toulouse need a win to claim No. 1 seeding ahead of Northampton by virtue of a superior try count. As if finding a way through the bottle-neck of an industrial estate which leads to Adams Park in High Wycombe is not a big enough culture shock, Guy Noves could always remind them of another.
The perennial head coach will remember all too well what happened when the French Emperors ran into Wasps some 15 years ago when they lost 77-17. Noves might also care to remind his squad that they were the holders then, as they are now. Or what if Ulster squeeze all five points out of Aironi by exploiting the fact that their hosts have been in the habit of conceding an average of more than four tries a match and what if Biarritz only take four from Bath?
Ulster win the pool but that, in itself, would not guarantee them the comfort of a home quarter-final at Ravenhill.
That could only happen with the unwitting connivance of Perpignan and Leicester in scoring fewer than four tries each against the Scarlets and Treviso respectively - wishful thinking considering that the Tigers ran in five tries against Treviso at the start of the season.
And the likely quarter-final seedings: 1 Toulouse, 2 Northampton, 3 Leinster, 4 Perpignan, 5 Biarritz, 6 Toulon, 7 Leicester, 8 Ulster. In that event, they would line-up like this on the first weekend in April: Toulouse v Ulster, Northampton v Leicester, Leinster v Toulon, Perpignan v Biarritz.
Source: http://feeds.examiner.ie/~r/iesportsblog/~3/y0uijYwxTuM/post.aspx
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